Say it ain’t so, Joe!
On Friday morning, Joe Biden played the ultimate trump card. And ironically, it’s the same card that Trump himself has been accused of playing for his entire term in office.
Some context: Most of Donald Trump’s political opponents label him, first and foremost, as a racist “white supremacist.” This has been the official mainstream narrative since exactly 2015 – an accusation that, before then, the popular public figure had never faced.
Naturally, Trump supporters disagree with the label, and the suggestion that the President is a practicing racist who’s always blowing his “dog whistle” has galvanized many voters and supporters to push back. Those people, as you might expect, have summarily been painted with the same brush and declared a scourge on democracy.
The media tells us that racism has no place in American politics, and before Trump, that same media – for a while, at least – suggested that it would never be a useful political platform again.
Barack Obama, in his ascent to the presidency in 2008, hailed proudly that we were living in a “post-racial America,” an attractive sounding idea and one that is – more often than not – upheld as the ultimate goal by both sides of the aisle.
Racial divisiveness is universally reviled in modern political theory, but what about in practice? How damning is it, really?
Unfortunately, it seems to have some significant value, according to the newest batch of 2020 Vegas election odds.
Just a day ago, Bovada – America’s best political betting site – had Biden’s odds to win the 2020 Presidential election at +130, while Trump’s were trending at -120.
And then today, Basement Biden came up for air and had this exchange with Breakfast Club co-host Charlamagne tha God (itself an ironic political moniker):
When asked whether or not he was taking the black community for granted – and why he wouldn’t commit to a black female VP candidate – Biden offered this wildly out-of-touch (so we are told) response:
“If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.”
And what happened? Crickets.
Nobody on the left side of the aisle has yet criticized Biden’s idea that race should dictate political leanings, though they’ve lamented the same concept when applied to the other end of the color/political spectrum. A statement that would be the nail in the coffin for any 77-year-old white guy running for public office has instead boosted his odds to win!
Today’s line at Bovada – which moves in real time in accordance with the action coming in on every day’s news cycle – shows that Biden has gained 15 points on Trump since the flub:
2020 US Presidential Election Winner
• Donald Trump -120
• Joe Biden +115
• Hillary Clinton +1800
• Andrew Cuomo +7500
• Michelle Obama +7500
• Mike Pence +9500
• Nikki Haley +20000
Clearly, bettors – and thus, voters – believe that drawing such dividing lines is politically valuable.
This isn’t only true at Bovada, either.
Yes, Bovada commands the lion’s share of US political betting action, but other popular sites – like MyBookie and BetOnline – have seen the same thing: Trump’s odds have held steady while Biden betting odds have actually increased over the last 24 hours.
2020 US Presidential Election Winner
Via MyBookie
• Donald Trump -160
• Joe Biden +100
• Hillary Clinton +1800
• Mike Pence +4500
• Michelle Obama +3500
• Nikki Haley +15000
• Andrew Cuomo +3000
Odds to Win the Presidential Election
Via BetOnline
• Donald Trump -140
• Joe Biden +125
• Hillary Clinton +1600
• Andrew Cuomo +5000
• Mike Pence +8000
• Mark Cuban +12500
• Michelle Obama +12500
• Elizabeth Warren +15000
• Nikki Haley +15000
To be fair, it’s not entirely clear if this peculiar Biden statement (which is just one of many, you dog-faced pony soldier, you) is the only thing that’s helping his odds rise.
Just yesterday, Trump made headlines when he toured the Ford factory in Ypsilanti, MI, and refused to wear a mask in contravention of governor Gretchen Whitmer’s executive order.
Though Trump – and those around him – are tested for the Wuhan coronavirus on a daily basis, the latest attacks on the President are that he’s putting everyone in his wake at tremendous risk by breathing the same air as they do.
With masks becoming the issue du jour (after “lockdowns” and “testing” have fizzled in the mainstream due to general audience fatigue), this new angle of attack could be influencing bettors, especially if they think such actions will be viewed as reckless.
After all, recklessness in the face of the coronavirus has blemished several promising governorships in the nation, as Andrew Cuomo (NY), Tom Wolf (PA), Phil Murphy (NJ), and – yes – Gretchen Whitmer (MI) have all controversially ordered positive COVID-19 patients to return to their nursing homes.
In those states, nursing home patients and assisted living residents account for upwards of 70 percent of all coronavirus deaths within their borders. It seems that exposing the sickest and most vulnerable people to COVID-19 is a bad idea. But Trump’s “unmasking” gets more press (though Cuomo’s Presidential odds have taken a dive, and Whitmer keeps slipping down the VP boards).
Ironies aside, two things are happening here that will impact betting odds going forward.
First, Biden believes that he can take a certain demographic for granted and get Obama-level turnout among African Americans. He might be crazy, but the numbers – at least on the betting boards – bear this particular tack out. Tactically, such a race-baiting statement seems to be working to his advantage.
Second, Trump’s opponents are constantly moving the goalposts, and there is some doubt whether or not the Teflon Don can continue to shed these criticisms. While the Trump odds to win haven’t come down, Biden has closed a 50-point gap by 15 points in just a day’s time.
Please understand: We’re not here to tell you which candidate to support or why. We’re not here to tell you how you should vote, nor would we ever question or critique your decision. It is your own.
What interests us is the same thing that interests all political bettors – namely the trends, scandals, news coverage, and spin that will inform your wagers on the Vegas political props and election betting lines.
And frankly, we’re a bit baffled by today’s developments.
While it might be unfortunate that racial animus and “mask shaming” are shaping up to be the chief issues in 2020, that’s looking like the reality on the ground.
And if you want to make money on this election (because no matter who wins, elections end up costing everyone a pretty penny in the long run), you’re going to have to wade through the cynicism, hypocrisy, and downright befuddling nonsense that is American politics.
Without betting, where would we be?
