With the Minneapolis protests and riots raging out of control, the city is on fire. And as Minnesota is burning down, so too are Amy Klobuchar’s chances to be Joe Biden’s Vice President pick.
While Klobuchar clearly isn’t directly responsible for Monday’s killing of George Floyd at the hands of the Minneapolis police department, she is no longer a sound selection for bettors on the Vegas VP odds boards.
In 2006, while acting as the lead Hennepin County attorney, Klobuchar declined to prosecute Derek Chauvin for his involvement in a police-related shooting death. Chauvin is the officer who was captured on camera Monday choking the life out of a restrained and pleading Floyd in broad daylight before a crowd of terrified bystanders.
While the Chauvin incident from 2006 was deemed justified, the officer has had 10 use-of-force complaints during his 19-year career, and he was even suspended in 2011 after a different shooting (though Klobuchar was already well into her first term in the US Senate by that time).
Unfortunately for Klobuchar – and for bettors that put money on her VP odds – this is the end of the road. And it comes just as things were looking up.
Though you can still bet on Klobuchar to be Biden’s running mate at several top sportsbooks, we would strongly advise against wasting your money. Just because Minneapolis is on fire, that doesn’t mean you should join the protests by burning up your bankroll.
So who does it leave?
After Entitled Joe’s Breakfast Club disaster last week, it was already becoming clear to analysts that it wouldn’t be enough for the presumptive nominee to select a female Vice President for the 2020 Democratic ticket. After this week’s developments, it’s all but impossible to envision that he’ll pick anyone other than a female woman of color.
Realistically, then, these are the top candidates that should be getting your attention on the odds boards:
2020 Democratic Vice President Vegas Odds
- Kamala Harris +175
- Michelle Obama +750
- Val Demings +900
- Stacey Abrams +1200
- Susan Rice +1600
- Catherine Cortez Masto +2000*
- Michelle Lujan Grisham +4000
- Tammy Duckworth +4000
- Tulsi Gabbard +10000**
- Kamala Harris +160
- Michelle Obama +700
- Val Demings +900
- Stacey Abrams +1200
- Susan Rice +1200
- Catherine Cortez Masto +1600*
- Tammy Duckworth +2500
- Michelle Lujan Grisham +4000
- Tulsi Gabbard +10000**
*Catherine Cortez Masto has officially withdrawn her name from consideration for the Democratic Vice Presidential nomination. Though odds are still available and she could change her mind, we advise not taking this wager.
**Tulsi Gabbard, while a minority, is viewed as too centrist for the current 2020 Presidential election cycle. The DNC has made no secret of its disdain for the candidate, and there is no chance that Biden will select her as his running mate.
So who should you pick?
That’s complicated, as the dynamics are changing, and not just when it comes to the potential VP.
For one, Floyd was killed by Minneapolis police. Minneapolis has zero Republican representation at the local and state level. Chauvin was hired by Democrats, was employed by Democrats, and was empowered by Democratic policy – policy that explicitly approves the method Chauvin used to choke Floyd to death while he lay helplessly on the ground.
To be clear, this isn’t a judgment on the Democratic Party as a whole, nor are police in Republican-controlled cities universally “good.” However, voters may connect the dots and blame the city’s leadership for the role it played in fostering the environment that led to Monday’s outrage.
If that happens, Trump could flip Minnesota, which is a state he lost by roughly 1.5% of the vote in 2016. For his part, Trump has called upon the DOJ to immediately investigate Floyd’s killing.
Of course, there are many narratives seeking to put the blame on Republicans and on Trump himself. And those narratives have legs. While Democrats are in charge in Minneapolis, many voters align police – and specifically police brutality – universally with the GOP.
In this case, Floyd’s death could negatively impact the Donald Trump reelection odds bigly. However, #AmyKlobucharResign is trending on Twitter, and she’s a lifelong Democrat, so at least some of the blame is being leveled on the left.
As for which remaining VP candidates have the best shot, we think there are two women on the list that would best help Joe Biden win in states where he needs a boost. Sen. Kamala Harris, the favorite, isn’t one of them, as her state – California – is already in Biden’s pocket, and she isn’t nationally popular.
That leaves Val Demings (FL) and Stacey Abrams (GA).
Demings, as a US House Representative for Florida, could help Biden flip the Sunshine State, which is worth 29 electoral votes and could alone secure the presidency for the Democrats.
Meanwhile, Abrams is popular in Georgia (if not nationwide), and she could help Uncle Joe turn the state blue, which would net him 16 electoral votes.
At Bovada, the Vegas election odds for both states are currently trending at the following:
Florida (FL)
- Republican Candidate -165
- Democratic Candidate +125
Georgia (GA)
- Republican Candidate -240
- Democratic Candidate +175
Given that Florida has more electoral votes and went to Trump by a much tighter margin in 2016 than did Georgia (1.2% to 5.09%, respectively), Demings seems like the better tactical choice.
Additionally, Demings is less controversial a candidate than Abrams, who comes with significant baggage due to her loss in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election and the ensuing fallout.
Our money, of course, is on Demings.
And with +900 odds, that payout could help us recoup our losses on the Klobuchar pick we made before Floyd’s killing derailed everything.
