Even before the coronavirus pandemic and anti-police protests threw a monkey wrench into the primary election cycle, Vegas election betting sites had already largely taken down odds on the remaining races.
And that makes sense, as Joe Biden was the only Democratic candidate left, and Trump was unchallenged on the GOP side. The results were foregone conclusions.
However, it’s taken months for books to post electoral odds for each state in the 2020 Presidential election, and while most operators still only have lines up for the consensus swing states, BetOnline has published political futures for all 50. Each state’s electoral vote totals are included in parentheses:
2020 State Electoral Odds
Alabama (9)
- Republican -3300
- Democrat +1600
Alaska (3)
- Republican -800
- Democrat +550
Arizona (11)
- Democrat -140
- Republican +110
Arkansas (6)
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +1000
California (55)
- Democrat -2000
- Republican +1000
Colorado (9)
- Democrat -450
- Republican +350
Connecticut (7)
- Democrat -900
- Republican +600
Delaware (3)
- Democrat -1300
- Republican +900
Florida (29)
- Republican -125
- Democrat -105
Georgia (16)
- Republican -185
- Democrat +155
Hawaii (4)
- Democrat -2500
- Republican +1200
Idaho (4)
- Republican -3300
- Democrat +1400
Illinois (20)
- Democrat -2000
- Republican +1000
Indiana (11)
- Republican -600
- Democrat +425
Iowa (6)
- Republican -250
- Democrat +200
Kansas (6)
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +1000
Kentucky (8)
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +1000
Louisiana (8)
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1200
Maine (4)
- Democrat -350
- Republican +275
Maryland (10)
- Democrat -1300
- Republican +900
Massachusetts (11)
- Democrat -2000
- Republican +1000
Michigan (16)
- Democrat -190
- Republican +160
Minnesota (10)
- Democrat -300
- Republican +240
Mississippi (6)
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +1000
Missouri (10)
- Republican -1200
- Democrat +800
Montana (3)
- Republican -1200
- Democrat +800
Nebraska (5)
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +1000
Nevada (6)
- Democrat -350
- Republican +275
New Hampshire (4)
- Democrat -230
- Republican +190
New Jersey (14)
- Democrat -1000
- Republican +700
New Mexico (5)
- Democrat -500
- Republican +375
New York (29)
- Democrat -2500
- Republican +1200
North Carolina (15)
- Republican -120
- Democrat -110
North Dakota (3)
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1200
Ohio (18)
- Republican -180
- Democrat +150
Oklahoma (7)
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1200
Oregon (7)
- Democrat -1200
- Republican +800
Pennsylvania (20)
- Democrat -210
- Republican +170
Rhode Island (4)
- Democrat -1000
- Republican +700
South Carolina (9)
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +700
South Dakota (3)
- Republican -1300
- Democrat +900
Tennessee (11)
- Republican -1300
- Democrat +900
Texas (38)
- Republican -400
- Democrat +300
Utah (6)
- Republican -600
- Democrat +425
Vermont (3)
- Democrat -2000
- Republican +1000
Virginia (13)
- Democrat -500
- Republican +375
Washington (12)
- Democrat -1200
- Republican +800
West Virginia (5)
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1200
Wisconsin (10)
- Democrat -140
- Republican +110
Wyoming (3)
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1200
As you can see, in most cases, the deltas between the favorite and the underdog are fairly wide. With a bit of math, we can use these odds to come up with a projection to make informed wagers on the 2020 election’s national outcome.
BetOnline does not currently have odds posted for Washington, DC, which has three electoral votes and will surely go to the Democrats, bringing the national total to 538. In order to win the presidency, a candidate needs a minimum of 270 votes.
In 2016, Donald Trump won 304 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 227.
Now, given the nature of betting lines and the uncertainty of polling (as evidenced in 2016), bettors must be careful drawing conclusions from either set of data.
However, in the interest of seeing exactly how bettors believe this election will play out, if the favorite wins in each state above, here are how the presumptive party candidates – Trump and Biden – would fare:
- Joe Biden: 290 (including DC)
- Donald Trump: 248
Biden wins easily.
This makes sense compared to other odds at BetOnline, as Biden is a heavy favorite at the election betting site to win in November:
2020 Presidential Election Odds – Winner
- Joe Biden -140
- Donald Trump +110
- Hillary Clinton +1600
- Andrew Cuomo +5000
- Michelle Obama +7500
- Mike Pence +10000
- The Rock +10000
- Mark Cuban +12500
- Elizabeth Warren +15000
- Nikki Haley +15000
Donald Trump Election Special
- To Lose Electoral College & Popular Vote -130
- To Win Electoral College & Popular Vote +225
- To Win Electoral College, Lose Popular Vote +240
- To Lose Electoral College, Win Popular Vote +2100
If you think Trump is going to pull off the upset again – and given the upcoming political debates between the incumbent and his challenger – now is the time to pull the trigger on getting you wagers in.
Uncle Joe, after all, is always one flub away from giving the election back, with his recent statement elevating George Floyd’s death above the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. being just one of many examples.
Other potential election swingers are in play, too.
The developments in Seattle, Washington, could invigorate Trump’s base and move undecided voters to the right, as the city and state governments have allowed a band of socialist protesters to barricade a six-block residential section of the city and effectively secede from the US, holding homeowners hostage in their “Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone.”
Calls to the local police are being ignored and “forwarded” to the aforementioned CHAZ:
Trump, of course, is unimpressed:
Meanwhile, Seattle mayor Jenny Durkan (D) is shielding the hostile takeover, calling it a precursor to a “summer of love.”
“We’ve got four blocks in Seattle that you just saw pictures of that is more like a block party atmosphere. It’s not an armed takeover.”
Except, of course, for reports that it is, in fact, an armed takeover, with rapper Raz Simone and a gun-toting street gang having declared themselves the new “police” of the CHAZ.
How far this will motivate “law and order” voters in Washington’s general election – and in states around the country – remains to be seen.
Between now and November 3, there are a million different ways this election could change with the current virus mandates and protests that will be fueled and funded through the summer and into the fall.
Trump’s odds to win are low now, but his chances to win might be better than ever. If you want the best payout you’re likely to find on Orange Man Bad, the green is looking mighty good.