As with pretty much every Presidential election of the last half century or so, the outcome this November will hinge on the results in the US’ prominent swing states.
To that end, mainstream media outlet The Guardian has attempted to clarify obfuscate things by presenting its own arbitrary and unsound polling aggregator to show that Joe Biden is surely going to win the 2020 election and all you Republicans out there should probably stay home. Because coronavirus. Or riots. Or something.
To make their point, the rag has cherry picked only eight swing states when there are several more in play, including GA, ME, MN, NH, and NV. Further, The Guardian helpfully prefaces their results with a subtle jab at the electoral college before dropping the mother of all disclaimers, undermining the exercise to the point of journalistic and statistical malfeasance:
“We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out).”
Indeed.
Nevertheless, let’s see how The Guardian’s polling assessment lines up with the reality on the betting boards at the top Vegas election betting sites. Implied odds derived from the betting lines are included in parentheses for a more one-to-one comparison with The Guardian’s data.
2020 Presidential Election Polls + Betting Odds
Florida
- The Guardian: Biden 48.8%, Trump 46.9%
- Bovada: Trump -120 (54.5%), Biden -110 (52.4%)
- BetOnline: Biden -120 (54.5%), Trump -110 (52.4%)
- MyBookie: Trump -120 (54.5%), Biden -110 (52.4%)
The MSM says Biden is nearly two points up on Trump. Two of three Vegas election sportsbooks say that Trump is leading by about the same margin. Where people have put actual money on the line, Trump seems poised to win FL, which is probably the most important of all purple states in the 2020 general election.
Pennsylvania
- The Guardian: Biden 49.1%, Trump 44.7%
- Bovada: Biden -190 (65.5%), Trump +145 (40.8%)
- BetOnlne: Biden -165 (62.3%), Trump +135 (42.6%)
- MyBookie: Biden -190 (65.5%), Trump +145 (40.8%)
Bettors are going with the MSM’s polls in PA, but there are other polls that show Trump tied or leading, as they use arguably more accurate sampling methodologies. More on that below.
Ohio
- The Guardian: Trump 48.5%, Biden 48%
- Bovada: Trump -210 (67.7%), Biden +155 (39.2%)
- BetOnlne: Trump -215 (68.3%), Biden +175 (36.4%)
- MyBookie: Trump -240 (70.6%), Biden +175 (36.4%)
According to those betting on Trump’s reelection odds in Ohio, the race isn’t remotely as close as the half-point lead the mainstream media is giving The Donald here. Not. Even. Remotely.
Michigan
- The Guardian: Biden 49.4%, Trump 42.3%
- Bovada: Biden -250 (71.4%), Trump +185 (35.1%)
- BetOnlne: Biden -225 (69.2%), Trump +185 (35.1%)
- MyBookie: Biden -250 (71.4%), Trump +185 (35.1%)
Believe this one at your own peril. Those Mostly Peaceful Protests™ are mostly good for the Bad Orange Man, and other polls suggest a GOP surge is being suppressed by the network powers that be. Those Trump payouts at +185 are very tempting.
North Carolina
- The Guardian: Biden 47.5%, Trump 46.7%
- Bovada: Trump -135 (57.4%), Biden +105 (48.8%)
- BetOnlne: Trump -150 (60%), Biden +120 (45.5%)
- MyBookie: Trump -130 (56.5%), Biden +100 (50%)
Bettors at all three major Vegas political betting outlets favor Trump strongly in North Carolina. While this polling shows him trailing Biden’s odds but within the margin of error, he’s probably up 5-10 points in the state.
Arizona
- The Guardian: Biden 49.3%, Trump 43.8%
- Bovada: Biden -200 (66.7%), Trump +150 (40%)
- BetOnlne: Biden -145 (59.2%), Trump +115 (46.5%)
- MyBookie: Biden -180 (64.3%), Trump +135 (42.6%)
Arizona has long seemed pretty much in the bag for Biden (as it did for Hillary in 2016), but most national polling shows a tighter race than what’s being reported here. Although Biden did play “Despacito” on his smartphone to a small crowd in FL yesterday, so maybe he can corner the market on Hispanics in AZ, as well.
Wisconsin
- The Guardian: Biden 50.3%, Trump 43.8%
- Bovada: N/A
- BetOnlne: Biden -165 (42.6%), Trump +135 (42.6%)
- MyBookie: Biden -150 (60%), Trump +115 (46.5%)
Voters don’t like those Mostly Peaceful Protests™ in Wisconsin any more than they like them in Michigan. This is a tighter race than pollsters and bettors seem to think. You can probably make some money here.
Iowa
- The Guardian: Trump 47%, Biden 45%
- Bovada: Trump -250 (71.4%), Biden +185 (35.1%)
- BetOnlne: Trump -260 (72.2%), Biden +200 (33.3%)
- MyBookie: Trump -250 (71.4%), Biden +185 (35.1%)
The odds show Biden to be in striking distance. But the disparity between the polls and the odds in Iowa are something to bookmark and compare with the actual election results. Trump’s so far ahead in the state that Biden probably shouldn’t even waste time campaigning there.
All the above notwithstanding, according to most pundits and analysts, the most pressing and potentially lucrative of the 2020 state electoral odds are those for the battlegrounds of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Recent polls have shown Trump in a statistical tie with Biden in FL, leading Biden by a point and a half in MI, all knotted up in PA, and leading Sleepy Joe in WI.
Source: The Guardian