At the beginning of his 2020 Presidential campaign, presumptive nominee Joe Biden promised to pick a female Vice President running mate.
As a result, all the top offshore sportsbooks with Vegas election odds started offering lines on potential selections. Naturally, once everyone but Creepy Joe dropped out of the race, those VP betting odds have been comprised entirely of women.
Until yesterday.
On Thursday, despite his odds to be the Democratic nominee falling precipitously due to various reports of malfeasance coming out of New York, Andrew Cuomo suddenly found himself in the middle of a bunch of women. Bovada, the world’s top election betting operator, put him on their Vegas Vice President odds boards.
2020 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee
Via Bovada
- Kamala Harris +200
- Amy Klobuchar +400
- Elizabeth Warren +500
- Michelle Obama +775
- Gretchen Whitmer +900
- Stacey Abrams +1200
- Catherine Cortez Masto +1600
- Hillary Clinton +1800
- Susan Rice +1800
- Tammy Duckworth +2500
- Michelle Lujan Grisham +3000
- Val Demings +4000
- Tammy Baldwin +4500
- Tulsi Gabbard +8000
- Andrew Cuomo +9000
Today, fellow site BetOnline – itself a popular election wagering sportsbook – has posted an even more unusual option: former President Barack Obama.
Vice President on the Democrat Election Ticket 2020
Via BetOnline
- Kamala Harris +185
- Amy Klobuchar +300
- Elizabeth Warren +400
- Gretchen Whitmer +1000
- Michelle Obama +1000
- Stacey Abrams +1200
- C.Cortez Masto +1400
- Hillary Clinton +2000
- Tammy Duckworth +2500
- Val Demings +3000
- Tammy Baldwin +4000
- Barack Obama +5000
- Tulsi Gabbard +6000
If Biden promised to pick a woman VP for his Democratic ticket, why are two prominent male politicians suddenly on the betting boards?
More specifically, why do they include a politician who said he isn’t interested in going to Washington and another that is arguably ineligible for the position in the first place?
The answer, of course, lies in the betting populace.
Offshore election betting sites don’t craft their betting lines based on pundit assertions or Constitutional law. Instead, they make their odds based entirely on the volume of wagers that the lines will bring in.
Odds, like elections, are popularity contests.
Yes, Andrew Cuomo stated unequivocally to his brother Fredo on CNN that he was not going to run for President and had no interest in serving the country in that role at this time.
Clearly, if that’s true, he wouldn’t accept a Biden nomination as VP (since he’d be taking over as POTUS sometime right after January 2021, most likely). But a politician’s word isn’t worth much.
Bettors putting up their money, on the other hand, are worth plenty. So now, you’ve got Cuomo on both the Democratic nominee Vegas odds boards and the Vice President boards at Bovada.
As for former President Barack Obama, he might not even be allowed to hold the post of Vice President.
Per the US Constitution’s 22nd and 12th Amendments, respectively, “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice,” and “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.”
Well, Obama has already served two terms as POTUS, which would – per the spirit of the law – make him ineligible for the post of VP under Biden or anyone else.
True, there is the semantic issue of the document saying “elected” when Obama would presumably be automatically installed as President upon Biden’s stepping down. But that’s a risky proposition.
There’s every chance in the world that this particular Biden-Obama ticket – as opposed to the other one with Michelle that the establishment is hoping and praying for – would be challenged all the way to the Supreme Court, where the Trump administration would likely succeed in getting the ticket tossed and the Biden campaign painted as a cheating, dog-faced pony soldier.
But those tactics don’t matter to sportsbooks. They don’t care who wins, and they shouldn’t. If they did, there’d be a conflict of interest, and the top-rated offshore betting sites have reputations to maintain.
But they do care deeply about giving the bettors what they want, and there is clear interest in both of these potential candidates.
As for whether or not you should bet on them?
A wager for Cuomo as the Democratic nominee is pretty compelling and pays out handsomely. We’ve actually got a few bucks on that outcome ourselves.
US Presidential Election Democratic Candidate 2020
Via Bovada
- Joe Biden -600
- Hillary Clinton +700
- Andrew Cuomo +1800
- Michelle Obama +3300
But Cuomo as VP? Biden promised us a woman, and Andrea Cuomo just doesn’t have a nice ring to it. And Vice President Barack Obama? For the Biden campaign, that would be the biggest loser on the list.
If Biden wants an honest-to-goodness election circus, it will be that much harder to dethrone the ringmaster.
