The biggest news of the last several months is without a doubt Monday’s FBI raid of former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida.
After all, such a radical move is totally unprecedented.
Of course, the Joe Biden administration claims zero knowledge of the whys and wherefores, but as you might expect, nobody’s buying that. And as you might also expect, most folks on the right and in the middle (if the middle actually still existed, which it clearly doesn’t) view this latest move as so much more empty political theater.
Remember those exclusive breaking toilet photos with the perfectly stacked, perfectly framed, perfectly legible top secret illegal documents snapped in Trump’s White House toilet that he apparently forgot to flush?
Yeah. This is more of that.
This whole thing is so absurd that it’s honestly somewhat difficult to divine out the purpose of it all.
Obviously, the congressional hearings regarding the January 6 Insurrection™ didn’t go too well for the witch-hunting left, and it’s looking less and less plausible that they’re going to get their fantasy arrest of The Donald.
This raid, clearly, won’t help to those ends. There’s nobody left to convince one way or another.
Given that, there are two schools of thought about this clownworld sideshow.
The first and most prominently held belief is that the weaponized FBI and DOJ are trying to intimidate Orange Man Bad™ from running for President in 2024. They are, perhaps, trying to “encourage” him to step aside for the heir apparent (who they’d probably raid ten minutes later). The general idea is that Trump is 76 years old and won’t want to deal with too much more of this.
But this is Donald J-ing Trump we’re talking about, here. He of purest Tiger Blood™. Nay, he of purest Dragon Blood™!
So, there’s probably not much hope that such a move will make him give up the ghost on a possible 2024 run.
The second school of thought is that the feds are just hoping to find something incriminating that conservative voters will actually care about or that will galvanize liberal voters who are less than optimistic about their party’s ability to reverse the current economic cataclysm.
That’s unlikely, too, but given the unapologetic existence and continued citation of the thoroughly fake “Pee Pee Dossier,” it’s not too farfetched to think these deep state folks might just make up some more ridiculous stuff.
This theory has even more credence in light of the news that Trump’s on-site lawyer wasn’t allowed to see the alleged Mar-a-Lago search warrant during the raid and was escorted off the premises.
If the FBI has intentionally poisoned the well of its own “investigation” by making sure said investigation was carried out illegally (rendering all “evidence” collected inadmissible as such), this sets the table for an Anonymous Sources™ free-for-all.
The feds could leak any old thing and then follow it up with a disclaimer that, unfortunately, even though they do have the goods – and they really, really have them! – they can’t actually be used due to some procedural technicalities, you see. But rest assured, Trump’s as guilty as sin!
It’s all very tiresome.
Now, if we had to choose between the first tack or the second, we’re going with the second. In fact, you can count on the second being true. However, we don’t think it was the primary purpose. The angle above is merely a happy side effect of the bigger attack.
Mar-a-Lago was raided to make Conservative voters torn between Trump 2024 and DeSantis 2024 back DeSantis.
The rationale here would be that Trump just as too much baggage right now and would be a distraction when the right can least afford to be sidetracked in taking back the White House.
But Democrats are just as scared – if not more scared – of The Ronald than they are of The Donald. And unless they’re sitting on a miraculously hidden pile of DeSantis dirt, they’re going to have a hard time smearing the guy.
So what gives?
Divide and conquer.
With the Trump raid, the left is hoping to cause an ideological rift within the right, splintering MAGA into pieces. Right now, the only way to defeat the right – the only way to even have a chance at defeating the right – is to make the right eat itself alive.
Pit Trump supporters against DeSantis supporters, and enough of them might sit the next election out if their guy doesn’t get the nod.
Of course, this only has a (long) shot in the dark if Trump and DeSantis haven’t worked out a deal to be on the same unbeatable 2024 ticket (the implications of which we’ve discussed at length already).
Additionally, it’s worth pointing out that the harder the opposition goes against Trump, the more fervent and widespread his support seems to grow.
Last week, we told you about how DeSantis finally overtook first place on the betting boards at BetOnline Sportsbook as the favorite to win the next Presidential election.
You’d think those DeSantis odds would be even better given the recent raid, right?
Well, they aren’t.
Here are all the relevant lines from the three top Vegas political sportsbooks online:
2024 Presidential Election Odds
2024 Presidential Election – GOP Nominee
- Donald Trump +100
- Ron DeSantis +185
- Mike Pence +1400
- Nikki Haley +2000
- Mike Pompeo +2800
- Candace Owens +3300
- Josh Hawley +3300
- Kristi Noem +3300
- Mitt Romney +3300
- Ted Cruz +3300
- + More
Here, Trump is favored to win the Republican Presidential nomination by 85 points over the heir apparent. And this makes sense. DeSantis is focused on Florida’s 2022 Governor race, and everyone still thinks Trump is going to announce a run.
The line is also weighted as it is between the two top candidates on the premise that a Trump announcement would effectively knock DeSantis off the betting boards, as he wouldn’t want to run against Trump.
That’s the bettor calculus, at least.
2024 Presidential Election – Winner
- Ron DeSantis +265
- Donald Trump Sr. +275
- Joe Biden +675
- Gavin Newsom +1600
- Kamala Harris +1600
- Mike Pence +1800
- Nikki Haley +2500
- Pete Buttigieg +2800
- Hillary Clinton +3300
- Michelle Obama +3300
- + More
Here, even though Trump is up bigly on the Republican odds boards, he slightly trails DeSantis when it comes to the main event.
Why?
Because this line assumes that DeSantis has a better chance to win outright if he earns the party nod. That’s all. And as you can see, the edge is almost impossibly small.
Had the Trump raid really been so earth-shattering in the eyes of the right, DeSantis would be sitting quite a lot prettier here.
2024 Presidential Election – GOP Nominee
- Donald Trump Sr. +120
- Ron DeSantis +120
- Mike Pence +1200
- Mike Pompeo +2500
- Nikki Haley +2500
- Tom Cotton +3000
- Kristi Noem +4000
- Ted Cruz +4000
- Tim Scott +4000
- Josh Hawley +5000
- + More
BetOnline’s GOP odds are much tighter than Bovada’s (or MyBookie’s – see below). Here, Trump and DeSantis are running neck and neck for the party nomination.
If you think Trump gets it, bet here. If you think DeSantis gets it, place your wager with Bovada.
2024 Presidential Election – Winner
- Ron DeSantis +265
- Donald Trump Sr. +325
- Joe Biden +450
- Gavin Newsom +1100
- Kamala Harris +1200
- Mike Pence +2000
- Elizabeth Warren +3000
- Michelle Obama +3000
- Pete Buttigieg +3000
- Nikki Haley +3300
- + More
These BetOnline Presidential odds are the most favorable for DeSantis compared against the odds at any other legit election sportsbook.
Here, he’s 60 points ahead of Trump, easily leading the pack. The disparity between where these two stand in the primary and where they stand in the general is harder to explain, but the variables cited above are still those in play.
We think this line’s a bit generous. But again, depending on which way you’re betting, BetOnline might be the better site – especially if you’re going on 45 for 47.
2024 Presidential Election – GOP Nominee
- Trump, Donald +110
- Desantis, Ron +212
- Pence, Mike +1200
- Haley, Nikki +1825
- Pompeo, Mike +3000
- Cotton, Tom +3400
- Noem, Kristi +3600
- Carlson, Tucker +3800
- Hawley, Josh +3800
- Cruz, Ted +4200
+ More
MyBookie political odds are always all over the place. In fact, these are so different from the other two books that line shopping becomes almost totally mandatory.
Bettors at MyBookie still back Trump to a large degree, giving him the edge over DeSantis by 102 points.
2024 Presidential Election – Winner
- Trump, Donald +285
- Desantis, Ron +330
- Biden, Joe +650
- Harris, Kamala +1350
- Newsom, Gavin +1475
- Pence, Mike +1975
- Buttigieg, Pete +2600
- Haley, Nikki +2700
- Obama, Michelle +3500
- Warren, Elizabeth +4300
- + More
MyBookie’s also the only site where bettors currently think Trump is still the overall favorite for a third straight Presidential election victory. What’s really interesting, though, is that – as with the GOP lines above – it’s not even close.
Trump’s MyBookie odds put him a healthy 45 points ahead of DeSantis in the general.
Of course, this is all totally academic, since they’re going to run together.
MAGA 2.0, y’all.
Nuke the swamp.
