It was only a matter of time.
Just as the American public soured on the draconian coronavirus lockdowns crippling the US economy, so too are they apparently souring on the Mostly Peaceful Protests® that have been dominating the 24-hour news cycle over the last few months.
In swing state Wisconsin, one of the areas hardest hit by both phenomena, support for the BLM movement (i.e. the entity nominally organizing the endless street violence and wanton destruction there) has plummeted.
According to a Marquette Law School poll taken between August 4 and August 9, approval and disapproval of the “protests” has crashed to a 50-50 split, with 48% of respondents approving and 48% of respondents disapproving.
In mid-June, just one month ago, the same poll showed the BLM movement sporting an approval rating of 61% and a disapproval rating of 36%.
In gambling circles, this is called overplaying one’s hand.
President Donald Trump, as a result, is seeing a big boost in the state, leading by a narrow margin in several polls.
And that’s just Wisconsin.
Other purple states have been trending Trump over the last few weeks, and bettors are starting to take notice.
Even as most polls still show Biden with a lead in the states that matter, that lead has diminished to settle largely within the polling margins of error.
Now, Vegas election bettors are starting to diverge from their erstwhile 1:1 reliance on these polls.
At all the major online politics betting sites, Trump is effectively tied with or leading Joe Biden. Biden, of course, had – until now – been in a commanding lead at all three books.
In fact, as the COVID-19 lockdowns first merged with the BLM protests and riots that analysts happily (or gloomily) claimed was an election-destroying double whammy for Trump 2020, Biden was averaging 100 points or better on Trump at the odds boards.
Almost exactly a month ago, that edge started to slip.
It dropped further last week at the conclusion of the cringey Democratic National Convention video conference/informercial, which should have been taglined with Zoom Into Action™ or Yes Web Cam!™ or something similarly dopey.
Now, following a raucous and timely Republican National Convention held against the backdrop of blue cities literally burning down on live television, Trump has narrowed the gap even more significantly.
Taking the average of all three books, Trump is now tied with Biden.
To see just how quickly the swing happened, here’s a timeline from the peak of Biden’s betting odds (which, it should be noted, were better than Trump’s best odds during any time this election cycle) to where they stand now.
Bear in mind, the COVID-19 lockdowns started in February/March, while the George Floyd killing occurred at the end of May. This is where the fatigue aspect no doubt plays a role.
2020 Presidential Election Odds Timeline
July 27, 2020 – Biden Election Cycle High
- Bovada: Biden -165, Trump +145 (Biden by 110 points)
- BetOnline: Biden -180, Trump +150 (Biden by 130 points)
- MyBookie: Biden -170, Trump +110 (Biden by 80 points)
August 10, 2020 – Before Democratic National Convention
- Bovada: Biden -160, Trump +135 (Biden by 95 points)
- BetOnline: Biden -155, Trump +125 (Biden by 80 points)
- MyBookie: Biden -170, Trump +100 (Biden by 70 points)
August 21, 2020 – After Democratic National Convention
- Bovada: Biden -135, Trump +115 (Biden by 50 points)
- BetOnline: Biden -130, Trump +100 (Biden by 30 points)
- MyBookie: Trump -120, Biden -110 (Trump by 10 points)
August 28, 2020 – After Republican National Convention
- Bovada: Biden -120, Trump +100 (Biden by 20 points)
- BetOnline: Trump -110, Biden -110 (tie)
- MyBookie: Trump -125, Biden -105 (Trump by 20 points)
To summarize, in the lead up to the national conventions, Biden was sailing. He didn’t even have to come out of the ancestral basement to campaign, because his polling numbers and betting odds were so dominant across the board.
Then, after literally phoning it in at the 2020 Democratic National Convention (which was then immediately trumped by the 2020 Republican National Convention), Biden’s lead dropped by 90 points at Bovada, 130 points at BetOnline, and 100 points at MyBookie, where Trump is currently leading comfortably.
Before, the Biden campaign might have been able to afford refusing to engage in any Presidential debates with the incumbent, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – and nearly every other Democratic talking head – has advocated for.
Now, however, a weakened Biden can afford no such thing.
For his part, the cognitively questionable statesman with the hairy legs has confirmed his willingness to debate The Donald, with the caveat that an on-floor fact-checker should be present.
Something, mind you, Biden had no need for during his convention speech when he slandered Trump as a white supremacy apologist by parroting the “Very Fine People” hoax for the billionth time.
Even the left-leaning BBC has finally had enough of that one.
Source: Marquette University