With the future of the country hanging in the balance, nothing is more crucial than the Georgia runoff elections for the pair of remaining unclaimed US Senate positions.
Currently, the GOP has a two-seat advantage in the upper chamber, but with two seats up for grabs and an incoming Democratic VP to serve as a 50-50 tiebreaker, Republicans desperately need to win at least one of these races.
According to bettors, they’re primed to do just that.
Just barely.
For now.
Indeed, over the last couple of weeks, despite being outspent by a wide margin and having a mainstream media apparatus dedicated to their destruction, Republican incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue were easily in the lead at all three of the top Vegas election betting sites.
That’s changed a bit in the last 24 hours, however, as Loeffler is now the underdog to Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock. Perdue is still sitting pretty, but his lead has cratered.
And there are still five days to go.
Here’s how the numbers look as of December 31, 2020:
2021 US Senate Odds – Georgia Runoff Elections
Via Bovada
- Raphael Warnock (D) -125
- Kelly Loeffler (R) -105
- David Perdue (R) -185
- Jon Ossoff (D) +140
Yesterday, Loeffler was trending at -145 to Warnock’s +110 at Bovada, for a reasonably strong 55-point lead. However, betting action has been brisk, and Warnock is now sitting at -125 to Loeffler’s -105.
That’s a 75-point swing in less than a day.
Meanwhile, Perdue was pulling Bovada odds of -200 a day ago, compared against Ossoff at +150. Perdue is still up, but Ossoff has closed the delta from 150 points to 125 points, and there’s still plenty of time left.
Via BetOnline
- Kelly Loeffler (R) -115
- Raphael Warnock (D) -115
- David Perdue (R) -155
- Jon Ossoff (D) +125
At BetOnline, Loeffler was up -150 to Warnock’s +120, for a 70-point lead on the Senate election odds boards. Today, they’re tied. As at Bovada, BetOnline members are going on the challenger here, which is sensible.
The Perdue-Ossoff race is also closing at BetOnline. On Wednesday, Perdue held a commanding advantage of -190 to Ossoff’s +155. Now, however, that 145-point lead has shrunk to just 80 points.
Ossoff has nearly halved Perdue’s standing overnight.
Via MyBookie
- Kelly Loeffler (R) -200
- Raphael Warnock (D) +150
- David Perdue (R) -220
- Jon Ossoff (D) +155
MyBookie is the only outlier here. The odds haven’t budged at the site, and they’re the same as they were yesterday, the day before that, and the day before that.
We find this curious, as we’ve been saying for weeks that nobody with any memory of the November Presidential election should be betting on the GOP in Georgia.
It looks like bettors at two of three online political sportsbooks got the memo.
Now, though the Georgia runoffs are the biggest deal going, there are some other interesting Vegas political props going up.
Sure, you can bet on who’s going to represent the Democrats and the Republicans on the 2024 Presidential tickets, but that’s four years down the road, and four years is a long time to wait for your wager to vest.
Instead, these props – from BetOnline – are more pertinent here and now:
2021 Political Props
Will Donald Trump hold a rally on Inauguration Day (Jan. 20, 2021)?
- Yes -200
- No +150
This seems like a given, and the payout is surprisingly good at -200. We’ll take the “Yes” here, and you should, too. Nobody rallies like The Donald, and those rallies aren’t stopping anytime soon.
Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s Presidential inauguration?
- No -4000
- Yes +1000
This one seems…questionable.
What constitutes “attendance”? There seems to be little question that Trump will be in the vicinity of wherever this inauguration is set to be held (perhaps holding the aforesaid rally), but there’s a very good chance that the inauguration will be a Virtual Town Hall™ on Zoom or something similarly asinine.
Basement Joe didn’t come out of his bunker to campaign, so why should he bother with helming a “super spreader” event that nobody would show up to anyway?
Take the “No” at -4000 if you must, but due to betting limits, you’ll only make a couple of dollars. We’re passing.
Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?
- No -1500
- Yes +600
Not a chance. Biden did yeoman’s work for the party, and despite their acumen for back-stabbing, Biden is practically royalty.
If the Democrats want him out, they’ll simply ask him to step down, and he’ll gladly acquiesce. Take the “No.”
Will Melania Trump file for divorce by 11/04/21?
- No -250
- Yes +170
We never understood this one, as there are no indications of marital strife between Trump and the First Lady. Hell, even we wouldn’t divorce The Donald.
Granted, things could change, but we don’t see it. “No” all day.
What year will Kamala Harris become US President?
- 2025 +250
- 2024 +300
- 2023 +350
- 2022 +400
- 2021 +500
2021, probably. In fact, all the options except the favored 2025 seem to be solid picks here. We’ll take that +500, cynics that we are.
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
- Yes -250
- No +170
No. Biden is obviously in ill health, a la Roosevelt circa 1944. Whether he’s asked to leave or simply can’t complete his term due to medical reasons, he’s unlikely to last in the position until January 2025.
We like the “No,” but this wager may take a long time to be graded, so we’re passing.